Hasanuddin Economics and Business Review
Rice Price Dynamics and Market Structures: Rice Policy, Value Chains, and the National Food Agency in Indonesia
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Keywords

Agricultural market governance
Food price stability
Institutional coordination
Price regulation
Rice supply chain

How to Cite

Kurniawan, H. F., Revindo, M. D., Praha, R. D., & Arrafif, N. Z. (2026). Rice Price Dynamics and Market Structures: Rice Policy, Value Chains, and the National Food Agency in Indonesia. Hasanuddin Economics and Business Review, 10(2), 134–154. https://doi.org/10.26487/hebr.v10i2.6911

Abstract

This study examines how rice supply chain fragmentation, government price interventions, and institutional governance interact in shaping rice market outcomes in Indonesia. It evaluates the alignment of government purchase prices (HPP) and retail price ceilings (HET) with market prices and assesses the emerging governance role of the National Food Agency (NFA). Using a qualitative institutional case study supported by descriptive price analysis, the study examines monthly producer, milling, and retail price data from Statistics Indonesia for January 2017–June 2023. Market prices are compared with prevailing HPP and HET benchmarks, complemented by documentary analysis of rice distribution structures, regulatory frameworks, and institutional responsibilities. The results reveal persistent discrepancies between regulated and observed prices. Farm-gate and milling-level grain prices exceeded HPP benchmarks by an average of 21.98% and 13.67%, respectively, while retail rice prices periodically exceeded HET, particularly in Zone 1. Fragmented distribution networks and multiple intermediary layers further complicate price coordination. These patterns suggest limitations in the operational effectiveness of price interventions and highlight constraints on BULOG's procurement activities. The establishment of the NFA provides an institutional basis for improved coordination, although its longer-term effectiveness remains uncertain. The study integrates supply chain structure, regulatory price gaps, public procurement constraints, and institutional governance into a unified analytical framework. It contributes to agricultural market governance literature by highlighting the importance of aligning price-setting mechanisms with market conditions, distribution structures, and institutional capacity in emerging economies.

https://doi.org/10.26487/hebr.v10i2.6911
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